If Garamendi Left the Gov Race

Over at the Calbuzz...which was just listed by Chris Cillizza as a top California political blog...Roberts & Trounstine ponder whom might benefit, should Garamendi decide to run for Congress instead of Governor.

Our Garamendi sources say Gov Lite is “still focused on the governor’s race,” but we’re not so sure. Those new hires -- liberal radio yakker Peter B. Collins and web whiz Brian Young -- could work for a congressional campaign just as easily as one for governor. Which got us wondering: Who benefits if Garamendi does ditch the governor’s race? Place your bets.

1. Attorney General Jerry Brown, because he could pick up some of those older, traditional Democrats* who otherwise might be attracted to old party warhorse Garamendi.

2. Not Jerry Brown, because he wants as big a Democratic field as possible so he can ride hold-over name recognition to victory in a crowded primary.

3. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (aka Tony Villar), because their geographical bases would have greater impact in a smaller field.

4. Not Villaraigosa, because he'd like a field jammed with Northern California white guys.

5. It doesn’t matter – Garamendi had, at best, 8 percent of the vote in the last Field Poll (without Lady DiFi in the mix) and this little slice of the electorate gets dispersed across the field.

...most bets are on Number 5.

In the comments thought...I thought an anonymous commenter raised some interesting points.

Here's why Garamendi will run for Congress:

1. He can't raise money for a statewide race.

2. He would rather face DeSaulnier/Buchanan than Brown/Newsom/Antonio.

3. He would rather face DeSaulnier/Buchanan than Dean Florez (running for LG).

4. He's effectively killed his efforts for money and endorsements in the gov's race by exploring the congressional opportunity -- who will help him now that he may jump out?

5. He's pulled out of a gov's race before. Remember the recall? This is a pattern if not a pathology.

I think anonymous makes a particularly good point with Number 4.

If Garamendi was having trouble raising funds before, I can't imagine it's been any easier this week.

So what do you think?

Is Lt Gov John Garamendi going to drop out of the Governors race and run for Congress in the 10th?